At Valuepoint we focus on minimising the downside of an investment by sticking to these investment rules
- The investment thesis must have a positive thematic
Companies in industries that have strong tailwinds will be more capable of delivering strong operational results.
- The company must be profitable
The value of a shareholder’s investment is equal to their share of the company’s profits over time. A company must be able to generate a profit to be a going concern.
- The momentum of revenue drivers must be positive
That is the company’s price and volume should be growing over time. This will be the case for a desirable company who’s product in in demand. Recurring revenue also results in fewer surprises given its nature.
- Must pay a dividend or intend to pay a dividend in current period
A solid company should intend to provide returns to its shareholders.
- Must not be a speculative trade - even if very cheap and tempting
The temptation to buy because something is cheap should be resisted. There should always be a defined investment thesis to back up any investment.
- The investment thesis must stand up
We should not rely on a catalyst to deliver your return, there is always a risk that it doesn't eventuate. Therefore, the investment proposition must stand up under the current market conditions.
- Must have a valuation you understand
If a business can not be understood, it should be avoided. Understanding the valuation is critical as this will be the ultimate driver of your returns.
- Must understand the drivers of the business
Identify a step-by-step flow of the company’s revenue model. Then understand what drives these factors.
- Must have a sustainable industry
Having a sustainable industry enables us to capitalise the earnings of the company. Never rely on an industry or conditions having to change to justify an investment case.
- Earnings must be independent of single sources
A company’s earnings should be diversified. That is not singularly funded by one customer or derived by a single event.- Single source of revenue test – no one customer / source greater than 20%
- No 3 customers greater than 50%
- Avoid businesses with large seasonal skews
Large seasonal skews can cause confusion on the current operating environment and lead to incorrect assumptions.
- Factor in opportunity cost of cash
All investments must be weighed up versus a risk-free investment. If an opportunity is not superior to cash it should be avoided.
- Only buy on discount to 1 year forward valuation
Time can eat away at an investor’s returns. Be prudent and only pay for 1 years upside.